The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) has released the 11th edition of its report, "Knocking at the College Door," which highlights an impending decline in the number of high school graduates in the United States. According to WICHE, this trend is expected to begin after reaching a peak next year.
Demarée Michelau, President of WICHE, expressed concern over the findings: “The news for colleges and the workforce is cause for concern,” she stated. However, she emphasized that there is still time for states and institutions to adapt their strategies to meet future workforce needs.
The report predicts that in 2025, the U.S. will see a record number of 3.9 million high school graduates before experiencing a steady decline through 2041, culminating in a 13% decrease with 3.4 million graduates projected by then. This anticipated drop stems from declining birth rates in the U.S., impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic on K-12 education, and stagnating high school graduation rates.
Regional differences are expected across states. While most states will experience losses, significant declines are projected in populous states such as California (-29%), Illinois (-32%), Michigan (-20%), New York (-27%), and Pennsylvania (-17%). Conversely, some Southern states may see increases or stable numbers.
Additionally, demographic shifts among graduates are noted. The proportion of Hispanic students and those from multiracial backgrounds is expected to grow significantly within public high schools' graduating classes. However, declines are anticipated among White (-26%), Black (-22%), American Indian/Alaska Native (-41%) graduates.
To address these challenges and ensure educational opportunities align with future workforce demands, several strategies have been suggested:
1. Increasing college affordability through state-federal partnerships.
2. Strengthening high school advising and creating effective pathways between education levels.
3. Simplifying college admissions processes.
4. Providing comprehensive support services for college students.
5. Expanding credit recognition for adult learners’ prior experiences.
Patrick Lane of WICHE highlighted the potential benefits if stakeholders collaborate effectively: “This is not the first time higher education has faced enrollment headwinds... There are strong, evidence-backed approaches that can truly benefit students."
WICHE's "Knocking at the College Door" serves as a vital resource since its first publication in 1979 by providing projections based on current educational trends to aid policymakers and educational leaders in planning for future demands.